
Cigarette Smoking and Adenomatous Polyps: A Meta-analysis
Article Outline
Background & Aims: Through the past 2 decades, a consistent association between cigarette smoking and colorectal adenomatous polyps, recognized precursor lesions of colorectal cancer, has been shown. We performed a meta-analysis to provide a quantitative pooled risk estimate of the association, focusing on the different characteristics of the study populations, study designs, and clinical feature of the polyps. Methods: We performed a comprehensive literature search of studies linking cigarette smoking and adenomas. We used random effects models to evaluate pooled relative risks and performed dose-response, heterogeneity, publication bias, and sensitivity analyses. Results: Forty-two independent observational studies were included in the analysis. The pooled risk estimates for current, former, and ever smokers in comparison with never smokers were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.86–2.46), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.29–1.67), and 1.82 (95% CI, 1.65–2.00), respectively. The association was stronger for high-risk adenomas than for low-risk adenomas. Studies in which all controls underwent full colonoscopy showed a higher risk compared with studies in which some or all controls underwent partial colon examination. Conclusions: This meta-analysis provides strong evidence of the detrimental effect of cigarette smoking on the development of adenomatous polyps. Smoking is important for both formation and aggressiveness of adenomas.
Abbreviations used in this paper: CI, confidence interval, CRC, colorectal cancer, RR, relative risk
See editorial on page 617; See Gupta S et al on page 220 in CGH.
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common form of cancer and the fourth most frequent cause of cancer deaths worldwide. More than 1 million new cases of CRC occur annually, and nearly 530,000 individuals die from CRC every year.1 Similar to other epithelial malignancies, CRC is a heterogeneous disease with respect to tumor phenotype, risk factors, genetic predisposition, response to treatment, and outcome. Identifying genetic and environmental risk factors for CRC might improve our understanding of its etiology, and thereby contribute to its prevention by targeting screening and other preventive measures to high-risk individuals.
Tobacco use is known to cause many types of cancers, including some in organs not directly in contact with smoke.2 Tobacco contains a large number of carcinogens that may bind to DNA and form adducts, potentially causing irreversible genetic damage to the normal colorectal mucosa. In addition, tobacco smoke contains many procarcinogens, which require metabolic activation to form DNA adducts, induce mutations, and initiate carcinogenesis.3, 4 Evidence of a role for tobacco smoking in the development of CRC still is debatable, and so far it is not considered as an established risk factor for CRC by the International Agency for Research on Cancer.5
Cigarette smoking has been more consistently associated with colorectal adenomatous polyps,6 which are recognized precursor lesions of CRC,7, 8, 9, 10 than with CRC itself. Two possible explanations for this paradox are as follows: (1) the association between cigarette smoking and polyps may be stronger with nonprogressing adenomas, such as those that are smaller and less villous; and (2) the latency period to uncover an association between cigarette smoking and CRC is longer than the follow-up duration of several cohort studies.11, 12
Despite the apparent evidence of an association between smoking and adenomas, we performed an exhaustive meta-analysis combining the evidence published in the past 2 decades to provide a summary risk estimate and to emphasize the consistency of the studies. Another aim of the study was to assess whether or not the risk varied according to different characteristics of the study populations, study designs, or clinical features of the polyps. A final aim of the study was to establish whether the type of examination performed (full vs partial colonoscopy) in the individual studies could have influenced the single risk estimates.
Materials and Methods
Definition of Exposure and Outcome
We studied the effect of current and past cigarette smoking on the risk of adenomatous polyps, limiting our analysis to histologically confirmed adenomatous polyps (adenomas) arising from the mucous membrane of either the colon or the rectum.
Search Strategy, Inclusion Criteria, and Data Abstraction
We made a preliminary literature search for the following terms using PubMed: ([smoke OR cigarette OR tobacco OR smoking] AND [(adenomatous polyps OR adenoma OR polyps) AND (colon OR rectum OR colorectal OR colorectum OR colon rectum)]) OR (“adenomatous polyps”[MeSH major topic] AND “epidemiologic studies”[MeSH terms]). No restrictions were applied. In addition, we performed a manual review of references from all articles and reviews of interest on the topic to identify additional relevant studies. Only reports complying with the following inclusion criteria were included in the meta-analysis.
First, studies should contain the minimum information necessary to estimate the relative risk (RR) associated with tobacco smoking and a corresponding measure of uncertainty (ie, 95% confidence interval [CI], standard error, variance, or P value of the significance of the estimate).
Second, studies should be independent. In case of multiple reports on the same population or subpopulation, we considered the estimates from the most recent or most informative report.
Third, study populations should be as homogeneous as possible, and not be affected by a particular disease that could have affected the smoking-related adenoma risk. In particular, we excluded studies conducted in patients with any hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes, chronic inflammatory bowel disease, history of colorectal polyps or cancer, or previous bowel resection.
Fourth, if cases of hyperplastic polyps, malignant polyps, or CRC were reported in the study, the report should present separate information for adenomatous polyps.
When available, we used adjusted estimates and estimates based on population-based controls. All articles were reviewed independently and cross-checked by 3 investigators (E.B., S.I., and S.R.). Disagreements were resolved by consensus among the 3 reviewers.
Data Analysis
We used random effects models with restricted maximum likelihood estimate to evaluate summary relative risks. Homogeneity of effects across studies was assessed using the χ2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions were performed to investigate between-study heterogeneity, which we considered statistically significant when the P value was .10 or less. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate whether results were influenced by a single or a group of studies.
We ignored the distinction between various measures of RR (ie, odds ratio and RR) on the assumption that tobacco-related adenomas are sufficiently rare.13 When several risk estimates were retrieved from a single study (ie, separate estimates for proximal and distal colon), we adjusted the pooled estimates for intrastudy correlation when several risk estimates were retrieved from a single study (ie, separate estimates for proximal and distal colon).14
In the dose-response analysis, we considered doses expressed in pack-years and we used a linear model according to the method proposed by Greenland and Longnecker.15 For the highest open categories, we considered 60 pack-years as the maximum consumption.
Publication bias was evaluated by funnel plots and quantified by the Egger’s test.16
All analyses were performed with SAS (version 8.02; SAS Institute, Cary, NC) and STATA software (version 8.2; Statacorp LP, College Station, TX).
Results
From PubMed we identified and screened 783 abstracts. Only 125 articles were considered of interest and full text was retrieved for detailed evaluation. References of all 125 articles were reviewed, but no additional relevant studies were identified. Forty-two independent case-control or nested case-control, population-based studies that met the inclusion criteria were included in the final analysis (Table 1). For 4 studies, the risk estimates for the main and subgroup analyses were retrieved from 2 separate publications.17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 Overall, 15,354 cases and 100,011 controls were analyzed.
Table 1. Description of the Included Studies
| Study | Year of publication | Area | Smoking classes | Cases/controls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demers et al39 | 1988 | United States | C | 94/1134 |
| Kikendall et al40 | 1989 | United States | C, | 98/87 |
| Kato et al41 | 1990 | Japan | C, | 525/578 |
| Cope et al42 | 1991 | Europe | C | 66/86 |
| Monnet et al43 | 1991 | Europe | C, | 103/108 |
| Shahangian et al44 | 1991 | United States | C, | 22/47 |
| Zahm et al45 | 1991 | United States | C, | 31/470 |
| Kune et al35 | 1992 | Australia | C | 29/348 |
| Lee et al32 | 1992 | United States | E | 271/457 |
| Clark et al46 | 1993 | United States | C, | 28/20 |
| Olsen and Kronborg47 | 1993 | Europe | C, | 171/362 |
| Giovannucci et al34 | 1994 | United States | E, | 499/7968 |
| Giovannucci et al33 | 1994 | United States | E, | 498/11,645 |
| Boutron et al25 | 1995 | Europe | E | 362/427 |
| Honjo et al17a | 1992 | Japan | C, | 116/930 |
| Honjo et al18 | 1995 | Japan | E | 504/3101 |
| Martinez et al48 | 1995 | United States | C, | 157/480 |
| Lubin et al49 | 1997 | Israel | C, | 196/196 |
| Terry and Neugut11 | 1998 | United States | E | 270/508 |
| Nagata et al50 | 1999 | Japan | C, | 242/26,365 |
| Almendingen et al27 | 2000 | Europe | C, | 87/35 |
| Breuer-Katschinski et al26 | 2000 | Europe | C, | 182/182 |
| Hoshiyama et al51 | 2001 | Japan | C, | 105/84 |
| Ulrich et al52 | 2001 | United States | C, | 530/649 |
| Cardoso et al53 | 2002 | South America | C, | 123/212 |
| Erhardt et al54 | 2002 | Europe | C, | 207/223 |
| Voskuil et al55 | 2002 | Europe | C, | 57/65 |
| Anderson et al30 | 2003 | United States | E | 408/654 |
| Sparks et al56 | 2004 | United States | C, | 513/606 |
| Inoue et al19a | 2000 | Japan | C, | 205/220 |
| Toyomura et al20 | 2004 | Japan | E | 754/1547 |
| Gong et al57 | 2005 | United States | C | 163/212 |
| Jiang et al58 | 2005 | Japan | E | 224/230 |
| Kim et al59 | 2005 | South Korea | E | 98/468 |
| Tranah et al23a | 2004 | United States | E | 654/947 |
| Tranah et al24 | 2005 | United States | E | 901/1239 |
| Tiemersma et al21a | 2004 | Europe | C, | 431/432 |
| van den Donk et al22 | 2005 | Europe | E | 768/709 |
| Ji et al31 | 2006 | United States | C, | 2225/30,848 |
| Larsen et al29 | 2006 | Europe | C, | 443/3436 |
| Mitrou et al60 | 2006 | Europe | C, | 809/873 |
| Otani et al61 | 2006 | Japan | E | 777/729 |
| Reid et al62 | 2006 | United States | C, | 160/882 |
| Skjelbred et al28 | 2006 | Europe | E | 827/332 |
| Stern et al63 | 2006 | United States | C, | 804/845 |
| Ashktorab et al64 | 2007 | United States | C, | 23/35 |
aThe study is not independent from the following one, but it provides additional information for subgroup analysis. |
Studies were published between 1988 and June 2007; 20 were conducted in the United States, 12 in Europe, 8 in Asia, 1 in South America, and 1 in Australia. Forty-one were written in English, and 1 was written in Korean with the abstract and tables in English.
The procedure for colorectal examination varied among studies. It was complete in 26 studies (total colonoscopy in 25, and sigmoidoscopy combined with barium edema and a radiograph of the entire colorectum in 1) and partial in 16 studies (only sigmoidoscopy in all or some patients).
Quantitative Data Synthesis
The pooled risk estimate for current vs never smokers, based on 33 studies, was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.86–2.46; Table 2, supplementary Figure 1; see supplementary material online at www.gastrojournal.org). The pooled risk estimate for former vs never smokers, based on 27 studies, was 1.47 (95% CI, 1.29–1.67; Table 2, supplementary Figure 2; see supplementary material online at www.gastrojournal.org). The pooled risk estimate for ever vs never smokers, based on 36 studies, was 1.82 (95% CI, 1.65–2.00; Table 2; Figure 1). We found significant heterogeneity among the studies for all classes of smoking (P < .001).
Table 2. Pooled Estimates of the Association Between Cigarette Smoking and Adenomas
| Strata | RRa (95% CI) | No. of studies | P value heterogeneity | I2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoking status | ||||
| 2.14 | 33 | <.001 | 58% | |
| 1.47 | 27 | <.001 | 57% | |
| 1.82 | 36 | <.001 | 77% | |
| Dose response (ever smoker) per 10 packs-yearsb | 1.13 | 19 | <.001 | 70% |
aReferences category “never smokers.” |
bRisk for an individual who has smoked 10 pack-years. |

Figure 1.
Forest plot for ever smokers vs never smokers. The partial endoscopy group is composed of studies in which some or all controls underwent partial colon examination. The full colonoscopy group is composed of studies in which all controls underwent complete colon examination. *Estimates for men; **estimates for women.
We report the dose-response analysis in Table 2. Assuming a linear increase of the risk with increasing smoking, ever smokers had a 13% (95% CI, 9%–18%) increasing risk of presenting adenomatous polyps for every additional 10 pack-years smoked in comparison with never smokers. For example, an individual who smoked 1 pack of cigarettes per day for 50 years or 2 packs per day for 25 years has almost twice the probability of having an adenoma (RR, 1.88) in comparison with an individual who never smoked.
Geographic areas for which only 1 report was available (Australia, Israel, and South America) were excluded from the subgroup analysis on geographic areas (Table 3). The risk of adenoma for ever vs never smokers was lower in the United States (RR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.44–1.89), intermediate in Europe (RR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.53–2.13), and higher in Asia (RR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.79–2.66), with indication of heterogeneity between geographic areas (P = .073). These differences were not observed for current and former smokers.
Table 3. Heterogeneity Analysis
| Factors | Stratification | Current vs never smokers | Former vs never smokers | Ever vs never smokers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RR | No. | P value | RR | No. | P value | RR | No. | P value | ||
| Sex | Female | 2.06 | 6 | .868 | 1.10 | 4 | .209 | 1.91 | 8 | .489 |
| Male | 2.02 | 13 | 1.41 | 9 | 1.80 | 14 | ||||
| Geographic area | Europe | 2.09 | 10 | .974 | 1.54 | 9 | .551 | 1.80 | 11 | .073 |
| United States | 2.18 | 15 | 1.33 | 11 | 1.65 | 17 | ||||
| Asiaa | 2.17 | 5 | 1.56 | 7 | 2.18 | 7 | ||||
| Type of adenoma | Low-risk adenoma | 1.52 | 6 | .024 | 1.05 | 4 | .345 | 1.82 | 9 | .099 |
| High-risk adenoma | 2.04 | 6 | 1.17 | 3 | 2.10 | 8 | ||||
| Size of adenoma | <10 mm | 1.69 | 5 | .360 | 1.01 | 3 | .352 | 1.93 | 6 | .682 |
| ≥10 mm | 2.02 | 4 | 1.17 | 3 | 2.02 | 6 | ||||
| Examination in controls | Full colonoscopy | 2.22 | 19 | .575 | 1.61 | 17 | .088 | 2.06 | 23 | .090 |
| Partial endoscopy | 2.05 | 14 | 1.31 | 10 | 1.68 | 13 | ||||
| Type of control | Symptomatic | 2.10 | 12 | .923 | 1.57 | 11 | .286 | 1.78 | 11 | .942 |
| Asymptomatic | 2.13 | 17 | 1.37 | 14 | 1.79 | 20 | ||||
| Site of adenoma | Proximal colon | 1.53 | 2 | .933 | 1.23 | 2 | .787 | 1.65 | 4 | .993 |
| Distal colon | 1.68 | 7 | 1.13 | 4 | 1.64 | 7 | ||||
| Rectum | 1.72 | 2 | 1.39 | 2 | 1.68 | 3 | ||||
| Adjustment of estimates | Adjusted | 2.07 | 17 | .597 | 1.32 | 17 | .005 | 1.71 | 13 | .125 |
| Not adjusted | 2.23 | 15 | 1.84 | 10 | 2.05 | 22 | ||||
aAsia includes Japan and South Korea. |
Eleven studies21, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 reported stratification for high-risk and low-risk adenomas. From 1 study29 it was possible to obtain only the estimate for low-risk adenomas (defined as tubular adenomas, size ≤10 mm, and without severe dysplasia) because advanced adenoma patients were analyzed together with CRC patients. One additional study35 reported data for high-risk adenomas only. Although the definition of high-risk adenoma differed from one report to another, the diameter size of the adenoma was a point in common: 10 mm or greater in 9 studies; 10 mm or greater and/or with villous or tubulovillous components and/or showing severe dysplasia in 2 studies; and 10 mm or greater and/or with villous or tubulovillous components and/or 3 or more adenomas in 1 study. The risk of high-risk adenoma was greater than the risk of low-risk adenomas for all 3 smoking classes, reaching a statistical significance for current smokers (RR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.56–2.66; and 1.52; 95% CI, 1.22–1.90, respectively; P = .024) and for ever smokers (RR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.79–2.47; and 1.82; 95% CI, 1.58–2.10, respectively; P = .099). The dimension of adenomas alone was not a source of heterogeneity, even if the pooled risk estimates for adenomas with a diameter of 10 mm or greater were consistently higher than those for adenomas with a diameter of less than 10 mm in all 3 smoking classes.
Studies in which all subjects (cases and controls) underwent full colonoscopy showed a higher risk compared with studies in which some or all controls underwent partial examination, with statistical significance for former smokers (RR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.37–1.89; and 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11–1.56, respectively; P for heterogeneity = .088) and ever smokers (RR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.79–2.38; and 1.68; 95% CI, 1.40–2.03, respectively; P for heterogeneity = .090).
Adjusted estimates were consistently lower than nonadjusted ones, this result being statistically significant for former smokers (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.17–1.49; and 1.84; 95% CI, 1.51–2.24, respectively; P for heterogeneity = .005).
Presence/absence of symptoms or signs (diarrhea, bloating, abdominal pain, and fecal occult blood) in the control population, anatomic site of colon, publication year, and sex were not sources of heterogeneity.
Publication Bias and Sensitivity Analysis
A funnel plot did not show evidence of publication bias for current smokers (P = .32; supplementary Figure 3; see supplementary material online at www.gastrojournal.org) whereas evidence of publication bias was present for former and for ever smokers (P < .001 for both; Figure 2; supplementary Figure 4; see supplementary material online at www.gastrojournal.org). In one single study,31 the largest in our meta-analysis, adjusted risks for former and ever smokers (RR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0–1.2; and RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1–1.3, respectively) were much lower than the corresponding pooled risk estimates. After the exclusion of this study, there was no evidence of publication bias for any smoking class and the revised pooled risk estimates were higher: RR was 2.17 (95% CI, 1.87–2.51), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.32–1.72), and 1.84 (95% CI, 1.68–2.02) for current, former, and ever smokers, respectively.
Because some studies reported risk estimates for current and not for former smokers, to allow an unbiased comparison between the 2 smoking classes we also computed RR for current smokers in the 27 studies reporting both estimates: 2.12 (95% CI, 1.80–2.50).
Discussion
During the past 2 decades, several studies have suggested that cigarette smoking has a marked effect on the development of adenomatous polyps. The results from this meta-analysis, based on 42 independent studies, support and strengthen this evidence, showing pooled risk estimates of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9–2.5) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.7–2.0) for current vs never smokers and ever vs never smokers, respectively.
In contrast, the association between cigarette smoking and CRC has been more controversial. The usual explanation for this paradox is that the latency period to uncover an association between cigarette smoking and CRC, which may be more than 30 years,33, 34, 36 is longer than the follow-up times of several cohort studies. Another explanation, the so-called dilution effect, is that only a small subset of adenomas progress to cancer, and the effect of cigarette smoking may be stronger on nonprogressing adenomas, such as those that are small, solitary, and less villous. Two studies reporting higher estimates for low-risk adenomas than for high-risk adenomas support this hypothesis,21, 27 many others20, 25, 28, 30, 31, 34, 37 do not. In particular, a recent study by Toyomura et al20 showed a clear higher risk for large and multiple adenomas in every anatomic site of the colon in a dose-response fashion. In our meta-analysis the pooled estimate for high-risk adenomas was greater than the one for low-risk adenomas, with a statistically significant difference for current and ever smokers, refuting the dilution effect explanation of the paradox.
Terry and Neugut11 mentioned a third possibility: the inclusion of a high proportion of subjects with adenomas in the unscreened control groups of most CRC case-control studies. Given the consistent association found between smoking and adenoma, the misclassification of controls might have biased the estimates toward the null hypothesis of no association. Our subgroup analysis on the type of examination performed on controls indirectly supports this third hypothesis of the paradox: we showed that the risk of having an adenoma associated with cigarette smoking is significantly higher in studies in which controls underwent total colon examination in comparison with studies in which some or all controls underwent incomplete examination (sigmoidoscopy). In the latter studies there could be a misclassification of controls, resulting in a reduction of the risk estimates. The less complete the examination, the more significant the misclassification.
This third hypothesis also would help to explain the evidence of publication bias in our meta-analysis. One single study31 clearly influenced the result. It was by far the largest study (it counted more than 26% of all controls of the entire meta-analysis) and it reported much lower risk estimates for former and ever smokers than the corresponding pooled risk estimates. In this study endoscopic examination was stopped at the distal colon, allowing possible misclassification of controls and reduction of the true relative risk. After its exclusion there was no evidence of publication bias for any smoking class.
The risk of adenoma for ever vs never smokers was lower in the United States, intermediate in Europe, and higher in Asia. These differences were not observed for current and former smokers. Although the statistically significant heterogeneity for ever smokers could be owing to chance, it might depend on differential smoking cessation patterns in the various continents.
Although the deleterious health effects of tobacco smoking are abundant, smoking has not been considered so far in the stratification of subjects for CRC screening by the public authorities. Although some investigators38 have proposed lowering the age threshold for CRC screening in men because of the higher detection rate of advanced neoplasia as compared with women, others34 have suggested lowering the age threshold among long-term smokers regardless of sex. The results from this meta-analysis show that smokers are at higher risk, which should be considered in developing screening policies.
The large number of studies, and the consequent possibility of subgroup analyses, permitted us to better understand the effect of smoking on different types of adenomas in different subgroups, and to make some inferences in regards to the adenoma-CRC sequence.
A possible limitation of our study was the heterogeneity of the studies in regard to methodologies of diagnosis of polyps and adjustments of the estimates for potential confounders, which limits the generalization of the results. We tried to overcome this problem by providing subgroup analyses in more homogeneous subsets of studies.
In conclusion, this meta-analysis provides strong evidence for the detrimental effect of cigarette smoking on the development of adenomatous polyps. Because risk was significantly greater for high-risk adenomas, smoking may be important for both the formation and aggressiveness of adenomas.
The authors would like to thank Cristiano Crosta for his helpful comments and William Russell-Edu for his valuable library assistance.
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PII: S0016-5085(07)01997-X
doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2007.11.007
© 2008 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Refers to article:
- Cigarette Smoking and the Colorectal Adenoma-Carcinoma Sequence






